Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 4.400807 5.264630 6.224331 7.365478 8.681030 10.145596 11.894775
2025-03-09 2.952474 4.052967 5.419097 7.220199 9.510521 12.302251 15.936131
2025-03-16 2.070040 3.215590 4.783583 7.040917 10.153450 14.233482 19.913626
2025-03-23 1.661172 2.867645 4.659864 7.431787 11.507669 17.160518 25.443074
2025-03-30 1.306868 2.492110 4.391615 7.526534 12.406349 19.514194 30.393914
2025-04-06 1.035152 2.169883 4.122225 7.541589 13.143284 21.663248 35.209878
2025-04-13 0.826190 1.897315 3.868650 7.517429 13.780663 23.684835 39.973529
2025-04-20 0.744465 1.842369 3.975994 8.102203 15.448203 27.418729 47.620464
2025-04-27 0.637092 1.705482 3.902226 8.344892 16.550200 30.326720 54.175753
2025-05-04 0.556578 1.604735 3.876217 8.662636 17.801992 33.563576 61.473604
2025-05-11 0.462347 1.444874 3.697394 8.653914 18.451722 35.822064 67.300775
2025-05-18 0.364396 1.244891 3.391117 8.338106 18.482059 36.993464 71.355273
2025-05-25 0.279011 1.052004 3.066173 7.945048 18.343460 37.899891 75.113994
2025-06-01 0.228174 0.940997 2.912395 7.900417 18.893310 40.108898 81.341369
2025-06-08 0.182254 0.826886 2.724384 7.745867 19.195637 41.875381 86.893102
2025-06-15 0.166098 0.808078 2.784569 8.184580 20.795430 46.231954 97.464459
2025-06-22 0.141346 0.747454 2.714802 8.292824 21.682945 49.256528 105.722712
2025-06-29 0.118155 0.682189 2.616089 8.311106 22.368184 51.923386 113.458329
2025-07-06 0.097885 0.618919 2.507743 8.285542 22.946603 54.409241 120.986109
2025-07-13 0.094186 0.629697 2.637599 8.921037 25.128915 60.333683 135.541758
2025-07-20 0.083505 0.601701 2.633510 9.184608 26.448169 64.537790 146.915447
2025-07-27 0.075412 0.582937 2.656925 9.529469 27.995371 69.318160 159.682153
2025-08-03 0.063203 0.534516 2.563514 9.520018 28.665483 72.259587 168.888065